2H-23 Bond Market Outlook: Get Ready for the Heat Lamp Economy

By: Jake Remley — July 10, 2023

Whether or not we have a recession isn’t the only key theme for the second half of 2023. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has clearly committed to a higher-for-longer interest rate policy and that means credit fundamentals will be under pressure. This will stress liquidity, exacerbate idiosyncratic credit risks, and heighten spread volatility. We recommend moving up-in-quality and liquidity while stressing credit metrics for a prolonged period under the heat lamp of restrictive monetary conditions.
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A 10 out of 10 for Year 10

By: Amy DiMarzio — June 22, 2023

After weathering the storm induced by an acute March banking crisis (how was that only three months ago?!) and trying to decipher the Fed’s endless rhetoric, we at IR+M were incredibly grateful for the arrival of our annual IR+M Gives BACK (Bonding about Charity and Kindness) Week in June.
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The Original Issue Discount Trend in ABS: Attractive Bargain, or Value Trap?

By: Scott Hofer, CFA and Lyniese Patterson, CFA — June 7, 2023

Once a feature largely confined to the High Yield corporate bond market, bonds issued below par are becoming more common within the investment grade Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) market. Bond buyers need to examine the risks before investing, given that extension – rather than impairment – is the more relevant risk for senior ABS bondholders. Moreover, the investment grade ratings that ABS carry do not reflect this risk.
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