Weekly Fixed Income Market Update: September 11, 2025

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  • Markets absorbed softer-than-expected labor market data following the August jobs report and large payrolls revision that further solidified the expectation of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting
    • Non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, below consensus estimates of 75,000; this figure was accompanied by a downward revision in June and July's figures by 21,000
    • Initial jobless claims climbed to 263,000, above forecasts of 235,000 – the highest level since October 2021
  • The market is virtually guaranteeing a 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, and two additional cuts by year-end
  • PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in August – the first decrease in four months – suggesting the flow through of tariff pressures to consumers has been limited
    • Conversely, CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, slightly above expectations of 0.3%; Core CPI increased 0.3% during the same period
  • Treasury rates fell across the curve in response to softer labor market data and imminent rate cuts; the 2-year Treasury rate fell 7bps to 3.55%, and the 30-year yield decreased 23bps to 4.70%
  • Following the Labor Day holiday, companies wasted no time issuing fresh debt with investment-grade and high-yield month-to-date supply totaling $106 billion and $17 billion, respectively
    • Investment-grade corporate spreads tightened by 2bps to 77bps, while yields declined by 16bps to 4.75%
    • High-yield corporate spreads widened by 2bps to 274bps, while yields fell by 7bps to 6.68%
  • Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) outperformed other securitized sectors as mortgage-loan applications rose to a three-year high; Agency MBS spreads tightened 3bps to 31bps
  • Municipal bond funds reported $159 million of net outflows last week, compared with $356 of inflows the prior week

 

 

 

 

 

Sources: Bloomberg and Bloomberg Index Services Limited. All commentary and data as of 9/11/25 unless otherwise noted.

Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. The views contained in this report are those of IR+M and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

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