Weekly Fixed Income Market Update: October 30, 2025

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  • The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps for the second consecutive meeting, lowering the fed funds target range to 3.75%–4.00% to guard against downside employment risks
    • It was also announced that further reductions to the size of the balance sheet would end on December 1st, with Treasury and agency-backed maturities being reinvested into Treasuries
    • Chair Jerome Powell did not commit to another rate cut in December, as several committee members favor pausing given labor market conditions and limited official economic data
  • The delayed September CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year, softer than expected, supporting Wednesday’s rate cut decision
    • October’s CPI release remains in question due to data collection issues amid the government shutdown
  • The Treasury curve flattened following Powell’s comments on the uncertainty of a December rate cut, as Treasury yields rose by as much as 8bps in the short end
    • The spread between the 2- and 10-year Treasury rates tightened 2bps to 48bps week-over-week
  • Investment-grade issuance of $46 billion exceeded expectations despite temporarily pausing for the impending Fed decision; high yield issuance was limited to $4 billion across one deal
  • The combination of easier monetary policy and resilient earnings supported investment-grade and high yield spreads, as they tightened by 5bps and 24bps to 74bps and 267bps, respectively
    • Investment-grade yields rose 7bps to 4.76%, while high-yield yields fell 11bps to 6.65%
  • Agency mortgage-backed securities outperformed earlier in the week before underperforming as a result of the QT announcement
  • Demand for municipals bonds continued as funds reported $1.6 billion of net inflows – the seventh consecutive week of net inflows

 

Sources: Bloomberg and Bloomberg Index Services Limited. All commentary and data as of 10/30/25 unless otherwise noted.

Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. The views contained in this report are those of IR+M and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

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As of 9/30/2025 unless otherwise stated. Shareholder count as of 10/1/2025.
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