Weekly Fixed Income Market Update: October 16, 2025

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  • Investors weathered a volatile start to the week as trade tensions between the United States and China sparked a brief selloff; however, markets rebounded after Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggested signs of further monetary easing
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting solidified expectations of a 25bp interest rate cut at the October FOMC meeting
    • Powell also stated the Fed will likely end its balance sheet runoff of mortgage-backed securities in the coming months
  • Consumer sentiment was relatively unchanged from September, as conditions for buying and selling homes modestly improved and partially offset ongoing labor market uncertainty
  • Treasury yields fell across the curve given the heightened trade war tensions between the US and China
    • The 2- and 30-year Treasury rates each fell by 8bps to 3.50% and 4.63%, respectively
  • New issue markets remained steady amid volatility, led by large money center banks returning to the market following self-imposed earnings blackouts
    • Investment grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) supply totaled just under $20 billion and $3 billion, respectively
  • The renewed tariff concerns initially pushed IG corporate spreads wider by 4bps to 79bps, before tightening to 77bps on Wednesday; HY spreads widened by 22bps to 304bps, but closed the week unchanged at 282bps
    • IG and HY yields fell by 9bps and 10bps to 4.73% and 6.74%, respectively
  • Asset-backed securities (ABS) outperformed other securitized sectors with the spread between higher- and lower-quality ABS tranches widening to 4bps to 59bps
  • Municipals underperformed Treasuries as muni/Treasury ratios rose across the curve; demand remains strong as municipal bond funds reported $369 million of net inflows

 

 

 

Sources: Bloomberg and Bloomberg Index Services Limited. All commentary and data as of 10/15/25 unless otherwise noted.

Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. The views contained in this report are those of IR+M and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

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