Weekly Fixed Income Market Update: March 27, 2025

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  • Risk assets remained relatively stable as volatility decreased compared
    to earlier in the month, while economic data continued to show a less
    confident consumer

    • The S&P 500 rose on the week despite a dip on Wednesday,
      as President Trump proceeded with a 25% tariff on automakers
      and suggested new levies on Canada and the European Union
    • Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board,
      stood at 92.9 – its lowest point since early 2021 – amid
      economic policy uncertainty and a rise in inflation expectations
    • Labor market data held steady as both initial jobless claims and
      continuing claims came in slightly below expectations, at
      224,000 and 1,856,000, respectively
  • The Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 30-year rate increasing
    by 15bps week-over-week, while shorter tenors rose modestly
  • Both investment-grade and high-yield primary markets saw heightened
    activity as issuers rushed to sell debt amid worries that a potential
    slowdown in growth could reduce investor risk appetite

    • Investment-grade issuance totaled $41 billion, surpassing
      expectations of $30 billion, and high-yield borrowers brought
      roughly $5 billion of new deals to the market
  • Investment-grade spreads widened by 1bp week-over-week to 90bps,
    with yields increasing by 9bps to 5.23%; high-yield spreads remained
    unchanged at 314bps, and yields increased by 4bps to 7.57%
  • Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) underperformed other
    securitized sectors, with spreads widening by 1bp to 36bps

    • Delinquencies rose among first-time homebuyers amid
      declining housing affordability
  •  Municipal bond funds recorded $19 million of inflows last week,
    marking five consecutive weeks of positive flows; Muni/Treasury ratios
    rose across the curve, except for the 30-year tenor

Treasury Yield Curve

Month-to-Date Excess Returns

 

 

 

 

Sources: Bloomberg and Bloomberg Index Services Limited. All commentary and data as of 3/27/25 unless otherwise noted.
Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. The views contained in this report are those of IR+M and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M
makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular
IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates,
including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the
products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

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As of 12/31/25 unless otherwise stated. Personnel as of 1/27/26.
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