Weekly Fixed Income Market Update: June 5, 2025

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  • Investors digested softer economic data that suggested a cooling job market and slowing economic activity, supporting the view that rate cuts will resume sooner rather than later
    • The ISM services dropped to 49.9 in May, the first decline in US service providers activity in nearly a year
    • Initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly to 247,000 versus the median forecast of 235,000, the highest figure since October, but not yet at concerning levels
  • Investors continue to believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) will follow the European Central Bank (ECB) by lowering rates at the September meeting, and Friday’s jobs report could further support that expectation
    • The ECB cut rates by another 25bps Thursday but acknowledged they were getting close to the end of this policy cycle
  • The Treasury curve flattened due to weaker-than-expected economic data, with yields generally 3-5bps lower across the curve
  • Investment-grade borrowers took advantage of a supportive issuance environment by pricing over $26 billion of new debt, in line with forecasts
    • Spreads tightened by 1bp to 87bps, while yields fell by 5bps to 5.16% amid weaker economic data
  • Nine high-yield issuers accounted for roughly $8 billion of new debt as issuers looked to capitalize on strong demand and lower all-in yields
    • High-yield spreads tightened by 3bps month-to-date to 312bps, near its three-month low, and yields fell by 5bps to 7.41%, the lowest level since March 2025
  • Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) outperformed other securitized sectors, although still underperformed corporates; mortgage applications fell for the third consecutive week
  • Municipals underperformed Treasuries with the 10-year muni/Treasury ratio rising slightly, from 75.2% to 76.3%, above the trailing 1-year average of 70%

 

 

 

Sources: Bloomberg and Bloomberg Index Services Limited. All commentary and data as of 6/5/25 unless otherwise noted.

Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. The views contained in this report are those of IR+M and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

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