Weekly Fixed Income Market Update: January 22, 2026

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  • Markets navigated increased global volatility as geopolitical tensions between the US and European Union sparked over the control of Greenland, and concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook drove a sell-off in Japanese bonds
  • Third quarter GDP was revised higher to a 4.4% annualized pace – the fastest level of growth since third quarter 2023 – due to stronger exports and smaller drag from inventories; the rise was also supported by business investment and consumer spending growth of 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively
  • Core PCE rose to 0.21% in October before easing to 0.16% in November, indicating that consumer spending remained resilient ahead of the holidays despite the government shutdown and slower-than-expected income growth
  • Initial jobless claims totaled 200,000, below expectations of 209,000 indicating limited post-holiday layoffs; continuous jobless claims declined to 1.85 million, the lowest level since November
  • Treasury rates rose across the curve over the week, driven by the sell-off in Japanese government bonds and heightened geopolitical tensions; the 2- and 30-year Treasury rates each increased 8bps to 3.59% and 4.86%, respectively
  • Investment-grade (IG) issuance was constrained by the holiday-shortened week and President Trump’s address at the Davos World Economic Forum, with weekly supply totaling $19 billion on the week – below dealer expectations
    • Investment-grade corporate spreads tightened 4bps to 72bps, matching the lowest level since 1997, while yields rose 6bps to 4.87%
  • High-yield (HY) issuers also remained on the sidelines ahead of President Trump’s Davos address, with weekly supply measuring just over $5 billion
    • President Trump’s decision to rule out new tariffs on Europe supported risk premiums, as HY corporate spreads tightened 6bps to 254bps week-over-week; yields rose 2bps to 6.62%
  • The Mortgage Banker’s Association’s index of home purchase applications climbed 5.1% last week to its highest level since January 2023, reflecting a potential increase in Agency mortgage-backed securities supply
  • Short- and intermediate-duration municipals outperformed Treasuries, with the 2-year and 10-year muni/Treasury ratios declining from 64.6% and 62.9% to 62.9% and 62.6%, respectively; municipal bond funds reported $1.6 billion of net outflows last week, snapping eight consecutive weeks of net inflows

 

Sources: Bloomberg and Bloomberg Index Services Limited. All commentary and data as of 1/22/26 unless otherwise noted. Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. The views contained in this report are those of IR+M and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

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