Monthly Fixed Income Market Update: September 2025

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  • After keeping the fed funds target rate range at 4.25% – 4.50% all year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 25bp rate cut at its September FOMC meeting, characterized as a risk management cut and insurance against further labor market weakness
    • August’s nonfarm payrolls report came in below consensus estimates, increasing 22,000 versus 75,000, respectively; this was accompanied by a downward revision in June’s and July’s figures, which brought year-to-date adjustments to 366,000
    • Inflation remained in an uptrend with CPI and PCE growing 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, year-over-year
  • The Treasury curve flattened in September as longer-term yields declined in response to signs of weakening employment data
    • In September, the 30-year Treasury yield initially declined to 4.65% before climbing to 4.73% and finishing 20bps lower month-over-month
  • Investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) corporate spreads tightened by 5bps to 74bps and 267bps, respectively
    • In September, long corporates were one of the best performing sectors as issuers continue to favor issuing short- and intermediate-term debt amid elevated yields; lower-quality issuers outperformed higher-quality issuers, with CCCs outperforming BBs by 19bps
    • Heavy IG and HY supply resulted in some of the busiest months on record as issuers took advantage of lower yields and tight spreads; IG and HY issuance surpassed dealer estimates and totaled $207 billion and $58 billion, respectively
  • Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) outperformed other securitized sectors on the prospect of more bank demand; spreads reached as low as 28bps intra-month - driven by the Fed’s policy decision - before closing at 31bps, 3bps tighter month-over-month
  • Municipal bonds outperformed Treasuries as muni/Treasury ratios fell, particularly in the long end of the curve; the 10-year muni/Treasury ratio declined 6% month-over-month to 70%
    • Consistent inflows into mutual funds and ETFs helped soak up the $39 billion in municipal new issue supply during the month

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of: 9/30/25. Sources: Bloomberg

Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the securities mentioned above.

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