Monthly Fixed Income Market Update: November 2025

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  • Risk assets experienced mostly positive returns in November, as the longest US government shutdown in history ended; the delayed release of key economic data further complicates the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision-making ahead of its December meeting
    • September nonfarm payrolls rose 119k – above estimates of 52k – while the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%
    • October FOMC meeting minutes revealed members continued to disagree on whether inflation or the labor market poses the bigger risk to the economy
    • Consumer sentiment fell to a near record low, as consumers remain concerned about high prices and weakening incomes
  • Treasury yields were volatile in November with the front-end of the curve pricing in varying expectations of a 25bp interest rate cut at the December FOMC meeting
    • Market-implied odds of a December rate cut fell sharply from nearly 100% in October to 29% by mid-November, before ending the month at 83%
  • IG supply was notably heavy in November with over $134 billion of new debt issued; much of the issuance was attributed to AI-related investments, especially in datacenter infrastructure, which led to some caution from investors as the month progressed
  • Investment-grade (IG) corporate spreads widened by 2bps to 78bps while yields declined 6bps to 4.76%
    • Consumer non-cyclical and Energy were two of the best performing sectors, while AI-related sectors, such as Technology, underperformed
  • High yield (HY) corporate spreads widened to 304bps intra-month before rebounding following the increased likelihood of a December rate cut; spreads closed at 269bps, 12bps tighter month-over-month
    • Higher-quality issuers outperformed lower-quality issuers, with BBs outperforming CCCs by 80bps; BBs continued their strong performance as they posted the 8th straight month of gains
    • HY borrowers recovered from October’s lull with over $24 billion of supply – the busiest November since 2021
  • Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) underperformed other securitized sectors amid an increase in interest rate volatility; MBS spreads widened 1bp to 29bps
  • Municipal bonds underperformed Treasuries as muni/Treasury ratios rose; the 5-year muni/Treasury ratio rose 2% month-over-month to 67%

 

As of 11/30/25. Sources: Bloomberg

Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the securities mentioned above.

The views contained in this report are those of Income Research + Management (“IR+M”) and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

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As of 9/30/2025 unless otherwise stated. Shareholder count as of 10/1/2025.
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