Monthly Fixed Income Market Update: July 2024

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  • Equities and credit spreads rallied during the first half of July before giving up some of the gains in the second half of the month, highlighting an increase in risk asset volatility amid significant political events
    • Annualized GDP growth of 2.8% in the second quarter surpassed survey expectations, as did the 206,000 jobs added in the month of June, highlighting continued economic strength
    • Inflation continued its softening trend, as headline CPI grew by 3.0% and Core CPI grew by 3.3% year-over-year in June, both below expectations and the prior month’s figures
  • At the July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate steady, but indicated a potential rate cut as early as September given the developments in inflation and labor market data
    • Market implied probabilities moved in favor of three rate cuts for the remainder of 2024
    • Treasury yields fell across the curve and the yield curve steepened, as the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 50bps to 4.26%, while the 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 26bps to 4.30%
  • Investment-grade issuers supplied $118 billion of new bonds in July, shattering dealer expectations of $85 billion; issuance was dominated by the Financials sector, which accounted for almost 62% of the total issuance
    • Corporate spreads tightened by 1bp to 93bps, while yields ended the month down 34bps at 5.14%
  • The high-yield primary market experienced the busiest July since 2021 with $20 billion pricing during the month; with five full months left in the year, year-to-date issuance of $179 billion has already surpassed last year’s total of $176 billion
    • The Bloomberg High Yield Index posted positive returns for the third consecutive month and outperformed the S&P 500 in July, as yields dropped by 32bps from 7.91% to 7.59% and spreads widened by 5bps to 314bps
  • Commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) spreads remained stable despite an uptick in credit rating downgrades and an influx of supply; the sector saw its highest month of issuance of the year with roughly $13 billion of new deals priced
  • Municipal bonds saw positive returns in July, but still lagged Treasury performance by 128bps; the 10-year Muni/Treasury ratio rose by 3% to 68%

 

As of: 7/31/24. Sources: Bloomberg

Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the securities mentioned above. The views contained in this report are those of IR+M and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M's views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. "Bloomberg®" and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited ("BISL'"), the administrator of the index (collectively, "Bloomberg"") and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse. review. or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

 

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