Monthly Fixed Income Market Update: February 2025

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  • Investors endured another wave of volatility in February as tariff discussions with Canada and Mexico intensified, January's inflation data came in higher than expected, and consumer confidence tumbled as inflationary pressures weighed on consumers
    • January’s CPI increased by 0.5% versus expectations of 0.3%, while the year-over-year number rose by 3%, still higher than the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) inflation target of 2%
    • Consumer confidence experienced the largest monthly decline since August 2021, falling to 98.3 in February from 105.3 in January and significantly short of expectations of 102.5
  • In February, Treasury yields fell across the curve, as the 5- and 10-year yields decreased 31bps and 33bps, respectively, the largest monthly decline since July 2024
  • Investment-grade corporates underperformed Treasuries during the month, as volatility and market uncertainty impacted performance, particularly in the long-end
    • Spreads in February experienced modest widening of 8bps to 87bps, reaching their widest level since October 2024, while yields fell by 22bps to 5.08%
  • High-yield bond spreads widened by 19bps to 280bps, while yields decreased by 5bps to 7.15%; CCCs continued their strong performance as they posted the 10th straight month of gains, the longest streak since June 2021
  • Investment-grade corporates brought $161 billion of new debt to market, falling short of dealer expectations of $175 billion; year-to-date total issuance is down 6% year-over-year
    • High-yield new issue supply remained light in February, totaling nearly $19 billion – 30% lower than this time last year and 15% lower than January – as high-yield corporate yields fell amid elevated volatility
  • For mortgage-backed securities (MBS), spreads tightened by 3bps to 31bps, the tightest levels since August 2022, while the 30-year mortgage rate fell below 7% – for the first time since early December – to 6.94%
  • Municipal supply remained robust in February as issuers priced $39 billion of new debt – 41% higher than this time last year
    • Muni/Treasury ratios rose on the month as munis underperformed Treasuries, except in the 2-year part of the curve, where the ratio fell by 0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of: 2/28/25. Sources: Bloomberg

Excess returns are the curve-adjusted excess return of a given index relative to a term structure-matched position in Treasuries. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the securities mentioned above.

The views contained in this report are those of Income Research + Management (“IR+M”) and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.

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As of 12/31/25 unless otherwise stated. Personnel as of 1/27/26.
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