2026 Forecasts Are In. So Is Our Skepticism.
Outlooks and market predictions are beginning to circulate as investors turn the page on 2025 and prepare for the year ahead.
One forecast in particular — interest rates — remains notoriously difficult to predict. Early calls show a wide range: the 10-year Treasury could finish 2026 anywhere between 3.15% and 4.70%.
For investors, the challenge goes beyond guessing the direction of rates. They also need to anticipate the timing and magnitude of any move — very difficult to get consistently right.
Rather than predict the future path of rates, which can quickly detract from a portfolio’s positive positioning, we focus on what we believe delivers more dependable results: bottom-up fundamental analysis.
The Great Rate Debate: Where Will Yields End in 2026?
Source: Bloomberg as of 12/10/25. Forecasts are derived from the latest monthly and quarterly surveys conducted by Bloomberg news and from forecasts submitted by various contributors. Forecasts prior to 12/10/25 are the Bloomberg’s weighted average from 1-year prior to the date shown and represents the difference between forecasts and the actual 10-year Treasury yield. The 2026 high/low forecasts are based on the latest forecasts as of 12/10/25. The views contained in this report are those of Income Research + Management (“IR+M”) and are based on information obtained by IR+M from sources that are believed to be reliable but IR+M makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the underlying third-party data used to form IR+M’s views and opinions. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations, or projected returns for any particular IR+M product. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Income Research + Management. “Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by IR+M. Bloomberg is not affiliated with IR+M, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the products described herein. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any IR+M product.
